Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa

Abstract Increasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one climate-driven indices that captures impact climate on demand. However, little known about spatiotemporal trends CDD in relation a changing and economy West Africa its main implications. Hence, order analyze how demand could evolve, this study aims assess changes under 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 ° C (GWLs), with without population exposure two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 for Africa. A climate-reflective base temperature (T-base) used was determined using piecewise linear regression method. Seasonal electricity consumption derived decomposition feature. An ensemble seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were future projections. based shared socioeconomic pathway outputs. Based analysis, reported average T-base African region 24 C. increasing trend identified all RCP scenarios, but more pronounced RCP8.5. departs from mean historical period approximately 20% by 2100 standardized value. same observed different GWLs as level increased most striking Sahelian zone. Population (labelled CDDP) increases levels, highly agglomerated areas. CDDP index best spatial representation areas high potential respect demographic distribution. This can serve inform better assessment scenarios supply planning against backdrop conditions